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Now consider another person who is also overcon dent but has some ability nonetheless Not all his picks may do well, but more than ve out of ten will, because of his ability Assume that he picks 10 stocks that he is (over)con dent about Since he has some skill, he will outperform the market on average The result will depend on his overall ability to nd undervalued stocks, not on his level of con dence in them On average, if you are able to pinpoint undervalued stocks, it does not matter whether you are highly con dent or not so con dent Thus, the overcon dence bias by itself is not a bad human characteristic in picking stocks In some situations, biases may indeed be destructive One common bias that I also have is that of not selling a stock at a loss But if you believe that the stock is overvalued, then you should sell even if the current price is below your cost and you have to take a loss Professor Terrance Odean examined trading records for 10,000 accounts at a large discount brokerage house and found that investors are reluctant to realize their losses, which may be one reason for their underperformance relative to the market6 Consider another bias or misperception: comparing the stock market to a casino If you believe that you can do well in gambling at a casino, you are more likely to be wrong than right The stock market for you becomes a casino when you try to time the short-term price movements In that case, your beliefs may lead you to trade excessively, and trading costs will harm your performance7 Similarly, if you are betting in the options or futures markets, you may lose because time is not on your side, and you are probably playing against the house Everyone has biases However, you need to think about how biases may affect your behavior and whether that behavior is harmful Where do these biases come from While they probably have their roots in factors such as genes or geography, let s just consider one source: you and your own experiences If you lived in Seattle and saw scores of software engineers becoming millionaires from working for Microsoft, you would have lined up at a local university to become a software engineer You may have disregarded the possibility that you did not have suitable skills to become a good software engineer Maybe you should have gone to law school instead Similarly, if you lived in Fayetteville, near Wal-Mart s headquarters, you would have given your left hand to work for Wal-Mart when it was growing fast.

Some examples should make this clearerThe following code, from the file a width of 200 while preserving the aspect ratio:

Stage { title: "Images 7" scene: Scene { width: 200 height: 220 content: [ ImageView { image: Image { backgroundLoading: true url: url preserveRatio: true width: 200 } } ] } }

The actual width of this image is 380 pixels Scaling it to 200 pixels is a reduction by a factor of 19To preserve the aspect ratio, the height must also be scaled from 382 pixels by the same factor, which results in a final height of 201 pixels and the result shown in Figure 16-36

% % % %

Figure 16-36

This code, which you ll find in the file javafxshapes/Images8fx, sets values for both the width and the height variables:

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Stage { title: "Images 8" scene: Scene { width: 300 height: 250 content: [ ImageView { image: Image { backgroundLoading: true url: url preserveRatio: true width: 300 height: 250 } } ] } }

When both values are set, the image must be scaled to meet both limits, while also preserving the aspect ratio In this case, the image is actually 380 pixels wide but must be reduced to 300 pixels, which is a reduction by a factor of 127 Scaling the height by the same factor reduces it from 382 to 300 pixelsThis is still greater than the 250 pixels

0 1 2 3

allowed, so the height must be scaled by a further factor of 12This same factor must also be applied to the width, bringing it down from 300 to 250, as well, and thus preserving the aspect ratio Figure 16-37 shows the result

Why do people believe that a trend in prices will continue Probably because of their own experiences with a wide variety of charts since childhood, they naturally see patterns even when there are none In most charts, whether they depict per-capita income, number of cars produced each year, or consumer prices, there is a noticeable trend In most charts that I have come across in my life, there is an upward trend Given this vast experience, when we observe a price chart, we intuitively imagine a trend even when there is none Likewise, why do investors ock to investing with previously successful mutual funds when it is well known that past successes generally do not predict the future Once again, they are probably reacting on the basis of their experiences with patterns in life in general A successful surgeon continues to be successful, a good manager remains a good manager and may even get better with age, a good artist continues to be a good artist, and a good researcher continues to be a good researcher But, this pattern does not apply to most mutual fund managers because the luck factor looms large8 Overall, most of us do not have enough knowledge of the right variety to think independently all the time We form biases because we extrapolate knowledge from past to future or from one eld to another However, if you read widely and learn from others experiences beyond your own, you should be able to reduce your biases

Figure 16-37

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